Matt W. Kentucky Derby Picks

By Matthew W.

Posted: May 01, 12:32 PM

Churchill Downs

May 04 2019

8:32 AM

Kentucky Derby

#7 - Maximum Security (10-1) - This horse is just a freak. His last two races ran last three furlongs in :36 seconds! If Saez gets this one out and within a length or two of lead, he will prove a handful to catch thru the lane. Servis will have this one fit and ready. Run him down late to cash!

 

#17 - Roadster (6-1) - This talent Baffert runner has the most upside. Ran down stable mate Game Winner in Santa Anita Derby late with ease. Will make a big late run in lane. Main Danger!

 

#16 - Game Winner (5-1) – Two-year old champ has not won this year yet. Two tough losses off wide trips. Can't afford to lose ground here and expect to win. This grinder has a better chance winning Belmont. Derby requires more of a push button style, not his strength. Must use for the minor awards.

 

#3 - By My Standards (20-1) – Training like a bear. Needs to work out trip from inside draw. Kid on this horse is fearless and will go inside to save ground. Big shot to spice up tri’s and supers.

 

Long shots-  #14 - Win Win Win (15-1), #19 – Spin Off (30-1), # 1 War of Will (20-1) 

 

$50 wagering strategy

$20 win 7

$4 straight exacta 7 w 17,16

$3 straight exacta 17,16 w 7

$2 exacta box 3,7

$1 tri key 7 w 3,16,17

 

$100 wagering strategy

$20 win 7

$2 exacta box- 3,7,16,17

$1 trifecta box- 3,7,16,17

$1 tri key – 7,16,17 w 7,16,17 w 1,3,7,14,16,17,19